At times, prognostication plays a vital role in influencing the entire domain of a specific thing. This time, according to Gartner’s preliminary fourth-quarter forecast, mobile PC shipments will significantly drive the worldwide PC market to grow again this year. The recently enunciated forecasts foretell global PC shipments will total 298.9 million units in 2009, a 2.8 percent increase when placed on a comparison scale with 2008. In 2010, PC shipments are projected to reach 336.6 million units, a 12.6 percent increase over 2009.
Reflecting over Gartner’s final September forecast, there was an anticipation of a 2 percent decline in shipments for 2009. Correspondingly, this time’s prediction has paved the way towards a certain amount of optimism.
“Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year,” stated George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. “We’re anticipating seasonally modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, but because shipments were so weak in the fourth quarter of 2008, growth will appear quite strong. This could lull vendors and market watchers into thinking the market is recovering faster than it really is.”
Peculiarly, though PC shipments are now expected to rise in 2009, the market value of PC shipments is still predicted to decline. The market value of worldwide PC shipments is now predicted to total $217 billion in 2009, a 10.7 percent increase from 2008. Gartner is now predicting the market value of PC shipments to reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6 percent increase over 2009.
“Blame this year’s drop in market value on the unprecedented declines in PC average selling prices (ASPs) we’ve seen this year,” commented Shiffler. “The rapid decline in PC ASPs reflects a marked shift towards lower price points as customers have looked for ‘good enough’ PCs at the cheapest price, and vendors have tried to spur market growth by catering to ever-lower price points. We expect PC ASP declines to slow as the market recovers, but given the market’s competitive dynamic, we don’t see PC ASPs rising any time soon. As a result, growth in the market value of shipments will significantly lag shipment growth next year and beyond.”
Further, Gartner analysts restated their credence that Windows 7 will have a limited influence on holiday PC sales but stated that 2010 PC shipments could be affected.
“We just don’t see consumers buying new PCs solely because of Windows 7,” remarked Shiffler. “We are expecting a modest bump in fourth-quarter consumer demand as vendors promote new Windows 7-based PCs, but the attraction will be the new PCs, not Windows 7. The more critical question is, ‘When will businesses make their move to Windows 7, and what will they do about replacements in the interim?’ We don’t see businesses mainstreaming Windows 7 much before the end of 2010. We think many businesses will try to shift replacements to the back end of next year so as to sync their adoption of Windows 7 with their PC refresh. That will put a damper on early 2010 shipments.”
Gartner’s new predictions indicates mobile PC shipments are elevating to reach 162 million units in 2009, a 15.4 percent increase over 2008. In 2010, mobile shipments are on an expectation to reach 196.4 million units. Mini-notebook shipments, included in overall mobile PC shipments, are indicated to reach 29 million in 2009 and will grow to 41 million shipments in 2010. On the other hand, shipments of desk-based PCs are anticipated to total 136.9 million units in 2009, a 9 percent decline from 2008. In 2010, desk-based PC shipments are portended to reach 140.2 million units.
Gartner’s preliminary projection is subject to revision and will be superseded by its final forecast, which is expected to release in three weeks.
